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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2020 18:44:19 GMT -6
Actually, there were/are initiatives working on legal ways to put his videos down due to their dangerous downplaying of the actual crisis.
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Post by rowmat on Mar 24, 2020 19:55:02 GMT -6
For those who still believe this is a hoax or overblown I suggest you watch the reports coming out of the hospitals. The UK will likely have exceeded ICU capacity in many hospitals in around a week and in two weeks it will be hell on earth in almost every hospital on the planet. “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” - Dr Albert Bartlett Is it really necessary to keep harping on this, over and over, ad nauseam? Everyone gets it. The people that don't, don't. All it does is ad to the anxiety and stress. Yep it is. Because videos like the one posted of Wogard just help to reinforce the belief in many that "It's only the flu bro."
Our local hospital 40mins from me east of Melbourne is already beginning to get slammed and it hasn't even hardly begun. The official confirmed tested cases are only an ever decreasing fraction of the rapidly multiplying untested cases out in the wild and over 80% of transmissions are believed to be asymptomatic.
We have had increasing restrictions over the past 10 days and I have seen hardly any changes in people's behaviour because "It's only the flu bro." and "It only affects old people."
I'll ask you if you've been wearing gloves and a mask for the past week when you go to the supermarket and into public spaces?
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Post by chessparov on Mar 24, 2020 20:27:48 GMT -6
It will differ area to area, case to case. In South Orange County/CA... We are advised NOT to wear masks, if we know we're healthy. Oddly enough, my allergies (non-contagious-of course) are the best they've been in a couple years. Maybe 10% of that, is due to me adding "Airborne" Immune System pills-over the last week!  Chris |
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Post by drbill on Mar 24, 2020 20:50:32 GMT -6
There are no masks to be had.
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Post by drbill on Mar 24, 2020 20:51:17 GMT -6
Oddly enough, my allergies (non-contagious-of course) are the best they've been in a couple years. Mine too!!! |
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Post by drbill on Mar 24, 2020 20:56:45 GMT -6
For those who still believe this is a hoax or overblown I suggest you watch the reports coming out of the hospitals. The UK will likely have exceeded ICU capacity in many hospitals in around a week and in two weeks it will be hell on earth in almost every hospital on the planet. “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” - Dr Albert Bartlett Is it really necessary to keep harping on this, over and over, ad nauseam? Everyone gets it. The people that don't, don't. All it does is ad to the anxiety and stress. Agreed. The hysteria is likely going to be as bad, and last a lot longer than Covid-19. There's room in the world for differing opinion. It's what creates balance. Any mentally sound person who doesn't live in the jungle or back country knows all about it by this point in time. People are going to do what they are going to do, and creating mass hysteria is not going to help anything. My bro-in-law works at a hospital in Denver that is got a dozen or so hospitals in their business. They are very in tune with the situation, and although stressful and taxing, it's nowhere near "hell on earth" and they don't expect "hell on earth" - in 2 weeks, and hopefully never. Calmness, calculated precautions, staying healthy - eating and sleeping well and hydrating - and NOT getting hysterical is the best thing you can do. Creating widespread panic is going to get us into a world of hurt. |
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Post by rowmat on Mar 24, 2020 21:03:22 GMT -6
It will differ area to area, case to case. In South Orange County/CA... We are advised NOT to wear masks, if we know we're healthy. Oddly enough, my allergies (non-contagious-of course) are the best they've been in a couple years. Maybe 10% of that, is due to me adding "Airborne" Immune System pills-over the last week! Chris "If we know we're healthy" meaning what? That if you get it your chances of getting very ill are remote? Or because you may have it, but as you are asymptomatic and don't feel ill, therefore you think you are okay and healthy?
And this is now the problem.
It's those who think they're okay who are spreading it.
Those who are getting sick typically develop symptoms 4-5 days after exposure.
In the first couple of days they are unlikely to be very contagious until day 3 or 4. These are the people who then generally self isolate as soon as the symptoms are apparent and no longer move about in the community.
Masks are more important for those who are asymptomatic carriers. But you will not know if you are an asymptomatic carrier unless you are tested and how many people not showing symptoms meet the requirement for testing? Pretty much none.
So to really get serious we should assume we could all be carriers even without knowing we are.
We need not only be aware to avoid catching it but also not assume we are not spreading it just because we don't feel sick ourselves.
As for the mask shortage I purchased a few in early February as I guess I spent too much time watching it unfold in China and then popping up elsewhere before the enevitable alarms began going off.
Bandannas, scarves, and DIY cotton masks are an option that can be washed and disinfected.
We should be considering that we can unwittingly infect others which, if most thought that way rather than fixating on catching it, we may be better able to slow the rate of spread.
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Post by the other mark williams on Mar 24, 2020 22:04:01 GMT -6
Søren (my son) had a low-grade fever yesterday and today. I had a low-grade fever all day today.
Søren still has scar tissue in his lungs from all the fungal infections and granulomas prior to and following his stem cell transplants.
Trying to not feel too anxious over here.
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Post by chessparov on Mar 25, 2020 1:25:04 GMT -6
Sorry to hear this Mark. Your specific concerns over this are (way) more than understandable.
My comments are just meant as "generalities", and the last thing I'd ever want is to seem flippant over all this.
I went through a degree of similar concerns, caring over a period years, for my Late wife.
Different circumstances for she and I, but can relate to a degree. Given her health situation-from a rare genetic condition,
it was a minor miracle she made it into her 40's.
Chris
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Post by chessparov on Mar 25, 2020 1:26:57 GMT -6
It will differ area to area, case to case. In South Orange County/CA... We are advised NOT to wear masks, if we know we're healthy. Oddly enough, my allergies (non-contagious-of course) are the best they've been in a couple years. Maybe 10% of that, is due to me adding "Airborne" Immune System pills-over the last week! Chris "If we know we're healthy" meaning what? That if you get it your chances of getting very ill are remote? Or because you may have it, but as you are asymptomatic and don't feel ill, therefore you think you are okay and healthy?
And this is now the problem.
It's those who think they're okay who are spreading it.
Those who are getting sick typically develop symptoms 4-5 days after exposure.
In the first couple of days they are unlikely to be very contagious until day 3 or 4. These are the people who then generally self isolate as soon as the symptoms are apparent and no longer move about in the community.
Masks are more important for those who are asymptomatic carriers. But you will not know if you are an asymptomatic carrier unless you are tested and how many people not showing symptoms meet the requirement for testing? Pretty much none.
So to really get serious we should assume we could all be carriers even without knowing we are.
We need not only be aware to avoid catching it but also not assume we are not spreading it just because we don't feel sick ourselves.
As for the mask shortage I purchased a few in early February as I guess I spent too much time watching it unfold in China and then popping up elsewhere before the enevitable alarms began going off.
Bandannas, scarves, and DIY cotton masks are an option that can be washed and disinfected.
We should be considering that we can unwittingly infect others which, if most thought that way rather than fixating on catching it, we may be better able to slow the rate of spread.
These are all intelligent responses/concerns, that you raised. Honestly, I anticipated everthing you brought up. In my area though, there's much more of a possibility I'd be killed driving my car to the market, nailing someone else etc. In the end, it all comes down to risk assessment. In a way I'm fortunate, as a number of the parents of the kids I teach lessons to, are in the Medical profession-and are very sharp cookies. So rather like figuring out a chess game, we can study the relevant data, and (hopefully) make a pretty intelligent analysis. FWIW personally I think pushing the entire US into "normalcy" just "because it's Easter" etc., is ill founded. IMHO it's reasonably possible that "the US curve" will flatten out around the beginning of May. Might well be partly my natural optimism, which can be inverse to TP hoarding! Chris P.S. I apologize for my editing, of a much longer post! BTW I like to think I'm open to more learning/discussion, so I'll try to avoid confirmation bias-as best I can. |
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Post by matt@IAA on Mar 25, 2020 11:43:15 GMT -6
Chris, I think one of the challenges with this is that we are pretty much certain that if we leave this to individual risk assessment, we'll have a huge unmitigated outbreak. This is one of those cases that public health is not aligned with individual risks.
If we look at 2009 H1N1 the fatality rate shook out at 0.02%. But any individual's chance of death (if they contracted it) was around 1/10 of that - 0.002%. For something like that, maybe it's no big deal. But what if this is even more far apart? Any individual is 0.01% but the aggregated rate is 1%? How do you align those? It's not easy.
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Post by EmRR on Mar 25, 2020 12:10:17 GMT -6
Søren (my son) had a low-grade fever yesterday and today. I had a low-grade fever all day today. Søren still has scar tissue in his lungs from all the fungal infections and granulomas prior to and following his stem cell transplants. Trying to not feel too anxious over here. And the flood of pollen isn't helping personal assessments at all. |
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Post by Tbone81 on Mar 25, 2020 12:25:28 GMT -6
Is it really necessary to keep harping on this, over and over, ad nauseam? Everyone gets it. The people that don't, don't. All it does is ad to the anxiety and stress. Yep it is. Because videos like the one posted of Wogard just help to reinforce the belief in many that "It's only the flu bro."
Our local hospital 40mins from me east of Melbourne is already beginning to get slammed and it hasn't even hardly begun. The official confirmed tested cases are only an ever decreasing fraction of the rapidly multiplying untested cases out in the wild and over 80% of transmissions are believed to be asymptomatic.
We have had increasing restrictions over the past 10 days and I have seen hardly any changes in people's behaviour because "It's only the flu bro." and "It only affects old people."
I'll ask you if you've been wearing gloves and a mask for the past week when you go to the supermarket and into public spaces?
Fine, whatever, keep preaching to choir if it makes you feel better. I supposed I can just stop reading these threads. But first a few relevant points. First, The flu is horrible and kills 26,000/year in the US alone. Almost everyone who thinks they had influenza because they got a bad cold didn't. So in some ways the flu comparison is valid. Dismissing COVID because its like the flu isn't. Second, the psychological damage, emotional stress, fear and hysteria are very real, very damaging, and need to be taken every bit as seriously as the virus itself. We all get how bad it could be, and yet no one will know how bad it gets until it happens. So choose to live in fear or choose devote your mind to practices that help keep you grounded and calm. I mean, stress will fuck your immune system as bad as anything will. Third, no I don't wear gloves or mask when I go out. People buying, stealing, hoarding PPE is one of the reasons front line healthcare workers, like me, don't have the PPE we need in the hospital. Also, its rarely effective. So you wear gloves? How often do you change them? Are you practicing aseptic technique with them? If not then they're pretty much worthless. You're just passing around pathogens with your gloves instead. Masks? How many people know how to properly use a mask? Do you know its lifespan? Is it an n95 or surgical? If its an n95 have you been fit tested? Are you wearing a face shield with that mask? Are you touching your face with that mask? Do you understand how droplets get aerosolized and what environmental factors come into play when it comes to infection and safe distancing? Maybe you do, most people don't. Meanwhile me and coworkers have to share PPE (or not use it at all) and risk our on health by being exposed to infectious diseases, only one of which is COVID. The only people who should be wearing masks are people who are sick. There's not enough to do it any other way. |
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Post by matt@IAA on Mar 25, 2020 12:39:52 GMT -6
Re: masks. In Asia people wear masks to keep from getting other people sick, not to try to avoid sickness. If we had enough supplies, high amounts of public mask wearing with surgical masks would probably really help reduce the spread. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30229968 |
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Post by drbill on Mar 25, 2020 12:40:51 GMT -6
Søren (my son) had a low-grade fever yesterday and today. I had a low-grade fever all day today. Søren still has scar tissue in his lungs from all the fungal infections and granulomas prior to and following his stem cell transplants. Trying to not feel too anxious over here. And the flood of pollen isn't helping personal assessments at all. Hospitals out west are just sending people home that think they "may have" Covid-19. They are saying - "great, we'll assume you have it - go home and stay in confinement / self quarantine until your symptoms warrant hospitalization". There are tons of people who get their first allergy cough of the season who head in for testing. They (hospitals) are figuring if you've got it and it gets bad, you'll know if you need hospitalization, and in the meantime, self-quarantine. |
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Post by drbill on Mar 25, 2020 12:45:24 GMT -6
Second, the psychological damage, emotional stress, fear and hysteria are very real, very damaging, and need to be taken every bit as seriously as the virus itself. We all get how bad it could be, and yet no one will know how bad it gets until it happens. So choose to live in fear or choose devote your mind to practices that help keep you grounded and calm. I mean, stress will fuck your immune system as bad as anything will. <<two big thumbs up for this>> This is the VERY real tragedy that no one on the doomsday cult side of things is willing to address. The damage for years that we are doing is very real, very tragic, and will result in financial ruin for many, sickness for others, and even death to some. How do we measure that? It's not just "exponential" - it's mandated. |
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ericn
Temp
Balance Engineer
Posts: 16,112 
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Post by ericn on Mar 25, 2020 12:45:26 GMT -6
Ok I find this funny
I thought Illinois was under a stay at home order, and it is well my Weathertech order just shipped, I guess Wearhertech’s shipping guys are essential! Floor Mats save lives, who knew?
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Post by christopher on Mar 25, 2020 14:11:44 GMT -6
This type of thing is GREAT!!! it’s spring and we are locked indoors with the fam, I’ll open the windows, turn off the news and iPads and put these kind of videos on the TV/Hifi. I do wish the audio were better on most of these, but it’s still amazing how hearing a couple hours of vacation sounds helps..
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Post by chessparov on Mar 25, 2020 14:49:29 GMT -6
Along with all this... Logically, in the areas of the world most effected, since someone can be asymtomatic... The actual "death percentage", can be expected to actually be a lower percentage, than it appears. (I'm aware that you guys are more aware, than the Public is generally aware  To paraphrase one of my fave quotes (and film), of all time-Dr Strangelove... We must not have a health care gap! This is the core issue, for each segment of the World affected. Chris P.S. Thanks for the measured responses, to my pontificating. I never do that out in Public, you can arrested in Califonia for that! |
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Post by Ward on Mar 26, 2020 6:13:57 GMT -6
Whenevr I read something like right wing conspiracy theories and nobody should take them serious anymore I immediately tune out because phrases like that are the hallmark of left-wing sensational irrational alt-left wingnuts who are prone to crying at the loss of any of their heroes and screaming at anyone who dares to offer a different point of view, and yells that if we don't think and speak exactly like them we're racists and white supremacists . . . against ideas they hold. Pure lunacy. People who are completely manipulated by globalist totalitarians bent on world government and mind control. So, use phrases like that carefully lest you be thought of as a complete eejit. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2020 19:08:47 GMT -6
That's ridiculous ... I am out of this thread.
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Post by johneppstein on Mar 29, 2020 12:08:34 GMT -6
It will differ area to area, case to case. In South Orange County/CA... We are advised NOT to wear masks, if we know we're healthy. Oddly enough, my allergies (non-contagious-of course) are the best they've been in a couple years. Maybe 10% of that, is due to me adding "Airborne" Immune System pills-over the last week! Chris So Orange County is operating on the premise that health is contagious?
Interesting....
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Post by johneppstein on Mar 29, 2020 12:10:06 GMT -6
Whenevr I read something like right wing conspiracy theories and nobody should take them serious anymore I immediately tune out because phrases like that are the hallmark of left-wing sensational irrational alt-left wingnuts who are prone to crying at the loss of any of their heroes and screaming at anyone who dares to offer a different point of view, and yells that if we don't think and speak exactly like them we're racists and white supremacists . . . against ideas they hold. Pure lunacy. People who are completely manipulated by globalist totalitarians bent on world government and mind control. So, use phrases like that carefully lest you be thought of as a complete eejit. Please can the political crackpottery?
You're not being productive.
Let me give you a little survival hint - when there is a potentially lethal situation, the only course that makes sense is to err on the side of caution - erring on the side of denial, unwariness or obliviousness is, er, not very bright.
Do you enjoy Russian Roulette? Say "HI!" to Terry Kath for me.
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Post by johneppstein on Mar 29, 2020 12:20:52 GMT -6
Along with all this... Logically, in the areas of the world most effected, since someone can be asymtomatic... The actual "death percentage", can be expected to actually be a lower percentage, than it appears. (I'm aware that you guys are more aware, than the Public is generally aware To paraphrase one of my fave quotes (and film), of all time-Dr Strangelove... We must not have a health care gap! This is the core issue, for each segment of the World affected. Chris P.S. Thanks for the measured responses, to my pontificating. I never do that out in Public, you can arrested in Califonia for that! I fought the law and the law...... saw the case thrown out of court!
Hey, that's a great name for a band - The Pontificators!
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Post by chessparov on Mar 29, 2020 12:22:29 GMT -6
It will differ area to area, case to case. In South Orange County/CA... We are advised NOT to wear masks, if we know we're healthy. Oddly enough, my allergies (non-contagious-of course) are the best they've been in a couple years. Maybe 10% of that, is due to me adding "Airborne" Immune System pills-over the last week! Chris So Orange County is operating on the premise that health is contagious?
Interesting.... Yes John... It's called Cabin Fever! |
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