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Post by drbill on May 16, 2020 19:08:54 GMT -6
So sorry about that @toddj !
Here, confirmed cases have jumped. But I think that's cause we finally got enough tests in the last 2 weeks and the Governor has been doing hyper blitz testing all over. Recoveries have also jumped. 18% of those tested positive have completely recovered. Roughly 2% of positive tested have died. 5 deaths here. The continuing odd thing.
Age 1-17 : 86 positive
Age 65-85 : 45 positive
Almost double on the kids front, although that's deceptive, because our county is weighted far heavier on the retiree side. Very strange. All I can surmise is that kids are gonna be kids, and retirees are more cautious. Which points well towards sheltering being a viable help.
At any rate, things are opening up quickly. For better or worse - it's happening. About 50% of those in stores are wearing masks. The rest are winging it.
@toddj - our folks in independant / assisted living are still - and will continue to be in the foreseeable future - locked down tighter than tight. Hoping the best for your mom! Wishing your daughter the best, and thanks for her service!!
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Post by chessparov on May 16, 2020 23:55:28 GMT -6
My condolences also Todd, to you and your Family.
Chris
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2020 8:14:34 GMT -6
Sad Todd. I had to visit the ER last week due to a head injury from an assault. Luckily despite all the blood, glue fixed everything. I just have a minor concussion and some eye pain. Being in there during the pandemic was scary as shit. People were lined up outside for testing. Thankfully, I don’t have any symptoms or fever.
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Post by teejay on May 21, 2020 8:37:47 GMT -6
Sad Todd. I had to visit the ER last week due to a head injury from an assault. Luckily despite all the blood, glue fixed everything. I just have a minor concussion and some eye pain. Being in there during the pandemic was scary as shit. People were lined up outside for testing. Thankfully, I don’t have any symptoms or fever. Wow, Tom. Sorry to hear about that incident, and I trust those responsible for your injury are being dealt with. Hope you are ok and that your concussion and eye pain resolve quickly and fully. Glad to hear as well that you do not have any symptoms from that visit. Take care of yourself. |
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Post by ericn on May 21, 2020 8:58:42 GMT -6
So Sorry to hear Todd.
Just got the news my wife’s boss tested positive. Luckily she has been mostly working from home and minimal contact, but she also refused to wear a mask against hospital policy.
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2020 9:39:23 GMT -6
Sad Todd. I had to visit the ER last week due to a head injury from an assault. Luckily despite all the blood, glue fixed everything. I just have a minor concussion and some eye pain. Being in there during the pandemic was scary as shit. People were lined up outside for testing. Thankfully, I don’t have any symptoms or fever. Wow, Tom. Sorry to hear about that incident, and I trust those responsible for your injury are being dealt with. Hope you are ok and that your concussion and eye pain resolve quickly and fully. Glad to hear as well that you do not have any symptoms from that visit. Take care of yourself. Thanks and it’s Dan. To Mega Therion is the first Celtic Frost lp. today I’m feeling good enough to drive without swerving and have four rough mixes to do for headphones mix stems before this evening. Eek. I hope we and everyone we know can all avoid this. A few of my friends I haven’t been in contact with tested positive through antibody tests. Some of them got sick in January in the Midwest, so it must have been circulating here in the USA before Wuhan was even locked down. |
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Post by EmRR on May 21, 2020 9:57:14 GMT -6
Wow Dan, that's rough.
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Post by teejay on May 21, 2020 10:08:07 GMT -6
Sorry Dan! Thanks for the correction. Bad assumption on my part.
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Post by chessparov on May 21, 2020 10:11:14 GMT -6
Sad Todd. I had to visit the ER last week due to a head injury from an assault. Luckily despite all the blood, glue fixed everything. I just have a minor concussion and some eye pain. Being in there during the pandemic was scary as shit. People were lined up outside for testing. Thankfully, I don’t have any symptoms or fever. Glad you didn't have long term issues Dan, but sorry to hear this happened. Also Eric, it's good your wife is mostly out of the thick of it. Chris |
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Post by Ward on May 22, 2020 10:13:15 GMT -6
Sad Todd. I had to visit the ER last week due to a head injury from an assault. Luckily despite all the blood, glue fixed everything. I just have a minor concussion and some eye pain. Being in there during the pandemic was scary as shit. People were lined up outside for testing. Thankfully, I don’t have any symptoms or fever. How are you doing now? All better I hope and pray!! Being assaulted is awful. usually done by cowards. |
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 11:36:08 GMT -6
I’m feeling a bit better and my eyes are still healing. I managed to do four rough mixes Thursday afternoon and evening, finishing at 5am to get them done for headphone stems for a Friday tracking session, but the last two tracks were recorded with i term “dying switcher syndrome” that is extremely common with dying RME and Apogee Symphony I interfaces leading to me to create forced dropouts that I will have to either leave in or patch over with another note.
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Post by chessparov on May 24, 2020 15:16:34 GMT -6
Relieved to see you're doing better, but that sounds like a pain, having to deal with the interfaces.
Chris
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 15:32:15 GMT -6
Relieved to see you're doing better, but that sounds like a pain, having to deal with the interfaces. Chris worse Chris. Unheard Switcher errors in years old recordings where retracking is impossible that just being mixed now. I’m going to make a thread in the main forum about this and dying interfaces. |
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Post by chessparov on May 25, 2020 19:08:50 GMT -6
Wow! Thanks for the heads up. I had no idea it could be that serious.
Chris
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Post by sean on May 26, 2020 21:11:26 GMT -6
It means the measures taken to slow the spread have worked, and it hasn't reached you. But it primarily means our system of income/commerce/government is not equipped to mitigate the collateral damage of a public health emergency. Other systems might be working better at that aspect, time will tell. Not that you want those systems the rest of the time. I'm discovering that, because my business invested heavily last year and posted the lowest net income in years, it all counts against me in terms of assistance now. PPP and unemployment look just about worthless, I could beg more money than that on street corners. And many will..... When my personal bank started accepting PPP loan applications after the second round of funding they based the loan amount on net income, not net profit, unlike any other alternative I looked at. If funds are still available, I'd try applying that way. I don't have a business account or even a "relationship with a banker"...just the same bank since I was in high school. Also, while probably not enough to make up all your lost income, the federal unemployment rate is the same for everyone at week ($600) along with whatever your state determines (here in Tennessee it is $120 a week for self employed). I don't think that's "about worthless". It does takes a lot of work to actually get approved through their antiqued systems...I actually made a long document to share with musicians friends because it pretty much became a full time job applying the first couple weeks....but all these things have worked for me. I did find it somewhat amusing I haven't been able to get a Musicares grant when I have friends who have full time jobs that did...but a Grammy statue showed up in the mail this week  |
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Post by EmRR on May 27, 2020 9:28:59 GMT -6
I'm discovering that, because my business invested heavily last year and posted the lowest net income in years, it all counts against me in terms of assistance now. PPP and unemployment look just about worthless, I could beg more money than that on street corners. And many will..... When my personal bank started accepting PPP loan applications after the second round of funding they based the loan amount on net income, not net profit, unlike any other alternative I looked at. If funds are still available, I'd try applying that way. I don't have a business account or even a "relationship with a banker"...just the same bank since I was in high school. Also, while probably not enough to make up all your lost income, the federal unemployment rate is the same for everyone at week ($600) along with whatever your state determines (here in Tennessee it is $120 a week for self employed). I don't think that's "about worthless". Since I posted that someone clued me into the $600 that isn't really being addressed by the state of NC in the filing system. In NC, it's not addressed AT ALL in the process, nor even mentioned in the benefits paid, it's just there in the amount paid, with no line item. My filing is for self employed / reduced hours. I got as far as being informed I could get up to $132 a week, which would not be affected by earnings of UP TO $26/wk. I stopped there for awhile, before getting the additional info. There's an extra $600 IF they pay a benefit. Should you work any and earn, say, $175 in a week, it disqualifies you from state benefits, and the $600 is cut off too. My filing reached back 8 weeks, and because I'd managed to earn $200-400 week on repair work for 5 of those weeks, I received nothing. So, there's a strong accidental incentive to earn nothing, or earn well more than $732. I don't know how you fix that and still deliver benefits. Associates who applied for benefits before April 25th did not know they had applied TOO EARLY to see the Fed benefit, and it wasn't automatically turned on. They've had to REAPPLY. I called a lot of people, pretty much none of whom knew there was ANY benefit they might receive as a self employed person. So, yeah, chaos. Lots of people on the phone on hold all day, never getting anyone. You can ram info down the web portal, but you can't ask for advice, there aren't enough people working there to answer. Not sure if that's a typo above in red, or if we are saying the same thing. When I did a PPP application it was dictated you use line 31 of schedule C, net income......which is what I have almost none of last year since I invested heavily and wrote most of it off. So, no assistance in that case. I was told the same thing by a friend's wife, who is a bank loan officer. No one seems to know definitively, but there's a strong suggestion a PPP loan and receipt of the Fed relief would be in opposition to one another, with one disqualifying the other. People are applying for both and sitting on it, or not applying for one or the other in many cases I know of, with no clear guidance. |
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Post by EmRR on May 27, 2020 11:05:37 GMT -6
I did find it somewhat amusing I haven't been able to get a Musicares grant when I have friends who have full time jobs that did...but a Grammy statue showed up in the mail this week That last part is awesome! First part sounds broken, as usual. My wife is a visual artist, which is a field in which it is blatantly obvious that the people who get the grants are mainly professional grant getters, not creators. True is all fields to some degree I suppose. |
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Post by sean on May 27, 2020 11:13:59 GMT -6
You are right as an independent contractor it’s unclear about receiving a loan and unemployment. I collected unemployment until I was able to get a loan and then stopped filing. Luckily the managers and artist I had time scheduled with from March through April were willing to provide statements that our work was cancelled due to COVID-19 so I was able to show lose of work. I think where a lot of people get tripped up is that step.
It took almost a month for unemployment to come through but I did receive back pay.
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Post by johneppstein on May 27, 2020 13:12:01 GMT -6
Too early to tell anything. If I see actual publications (like Science, Nature, JAMA, etc) I will update. That's where those numbers came from. It's one of those things where you can't really see it until you're not in the middle of it anymore.
That being said, I'm inclined to believe that if this "reopening" stuff continues now, you'll need to relabel those scenarios - "optimistic", yeah. "pessimistic" relabelled to "middle of the road". Need a new category for "what actually is likely to happen".
Is anybody paying any attention to what's been going on in the red states of the South these last couple weeks? Virus is just starting to peak hard in all those areas where people had been assuming thay were "immune" due to not being in major urban centers. It's not working out very well. Exacerbating this is the fact that most of those areas are severely lacking in hospital capacity - like, there isn't any. Most of the rural "communmity hospitals are almost completely lacking in urgent care facilities and verty, very light on basic ERs - in normal times they rely on medevacing severe cases to the big urban hospitals - which are getting slammed in those regions. A lot of the governments in those areas are desperately trying to spin the news by misleading statistical trickery but if you look at the actual figures as reported by the hospitals themselves the truth comes out. Assuming you can get access to those figures in the first place.
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Post by EmRR on May 27, 2020 15:03:51 GMT -6
Is anybody paying any attention to what's been going on in the red states of the South these last couple weeks? Virus is just starting to peak hard in all those areas where people had been assuming thay were "immune" due to not being in major urban centers. It's not working out very well. Exacerbating this is the fact that most of those areas are severely lacking in hospital capacity - like, there isn't any. Most of the rural "communmity hospitals are almost completely lacking in urgent care facilities and verty, very light on basic ERs - in normal times they rely on medevacing severe cases to the big urban hospitals - which are getting slammed in those regions. A lot of the governments in those areas are desperately trying to spin the news by misleading statistical trickery but if you look at the actual figures as reported by the hospitals themselves the truth comes out. Assuming you can get access to those figures in the first place.
I'm in an urban area in NC, and you don't see as many masks as you should in stores, or people keeping any kind of distance. The rural counties next door have much higher death rates, with lower populations and lower counted infections. Most of the cases near here are from a poultry processing plant in another county. 1/4 of the employees positive. |
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Post by teejay on May 28, 2020 7:51:00 GMT -6
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Post by EmRR on May 28, 2020 9:24:54 GMT -6
Then there's Dominic Cummings, and the entirely different reaction of the UK about it.
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Post by svart on May 28, 2020 11:29:54 GMT -6
Too early to tell anything. If I see actual publications (like Science, Nature, JAMA, etc) I will update. That's where those numbers came from. It's one of those things where you can't really see it until you're not in the middle of it anymore.
That being said, I'm inclined to believe that if this "reopening" stuff continues now, you'll need to relabel those scenarios - "optimistic", yeah. "pessimistic" relabelled to "middle of the road". Need a new category for "what actually is likely to happen".
Is anybody paying any attention to what's been going on in the red states of the South these last couple weeks? Virus is just starting to peak hard in all those areas where people had been assuming thay were "immune" due to not being in major urban centers. It's not working out very well. Exacerbating this is the fact that most of those areas are severely lacking in hospital capacity - like, there isn't any. Most of the rural "communmity hospitals are almost completely lacking in urgent care facilities and verty, very light on basic ERs - in normal times they rely on medevacing severe cases to the big urban hospitals - which are getting slammed in those regions. A lot of the governments in those areas are desperately trying to spin the news by misleading statistical trickery but if you look at the actual figures as reported by the hospitals themselves the truth comes out. Assuming you can get access to those figures in the first place.
Yes, I live in one of those states. It's nowhere near the level of emergency you are claiming. |
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Post by notneeson on May 28, 2020 12:20:37 GMT -6
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Post by johneppstein on May 29, 2020 16:08:29 GMT -6
Scientific American has a special report on the epidemic this month print copy came in the mail 2 days ago. They've also announced free online access to their Covid coverage through June.
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Post by chessparov on May 29, 2020 16:12:10 GMT -6
Thanks guys, I'll try to catch up on all this, over the weekend.
Chris
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Post by cyrano on Jul 1, 2020 5:23:20 GMT -6
Even that might not work... It seems the anti-bodies aren't permanent. That's why people who are tested positive once might test negative a few months later. Imagine how that affects testing of the COVID tests. And herd-immunity. And, no, I have no links for that either; I suppose it will surface in the press in the next few days. I just picked it up from a local paper: www.gva.be/cnt/dmf20200701_91873871/antilichamen-tegen-coronavirus-verdwijnen-weer-uit-bloedI've found no expert to disagree... |
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Post by svart on Jul 1, 2020 10:23:28 GMT -6
Even that might not work... It seems the anti-bodies aren't permanent. That's why people who are tested positive once might test negative a few months later. Imagine how that affects testing of the COVID tests. And herd-immunity. And, no, I have no links for that either; I suppose it will surface in the press in the next few days. I just picked it up from a local paper: www.gva.be/cnt/dmf20200701_91873871/antilichamen-tegen-coronavirus-verdwijnen-weer-uit-bloedI've found no expert to disagree... It's well known that a large number of respiratory viruses have a dual peak, a first acute stage, followed by partial recovery, then a second more mild symptomatic stage followed by full recovery. Not enough is known about the virus yet, but it's really doubtful the same folks are being infected in two distinct exposures. |
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Post by Tbone81 on Jul 1, 2020 11:02:52 GMT -6
Even that might not work... It seems the anti-bodies aren't permanent. That's why people who are tested positive once might test negative a few months later. Imagine how that affects testing of the COVID tests. And herd-immunity. And, no, I have no links for that either; I suppose it will surface in the press in the next few days. I just picked it up from a local paper: www.gva.be/cnt/dmf20200701_91873871/antilichamen-tegen-coronavirus-verdwijnen-weer-uit-bloedI've found no expert to disagree... It's well known that a large number of respiratory viruses have a dual peak, a first acute stage, followed by partial recovery, then a second more mild symptomatic stage followed by full recovery. Not enough is known about the virus yet, but it's really doubtful the same folks are being infected in two distinct exposures. It also depends on which antibodies you're testing for. For Covid I think they test for IgG and IgM (if I remember correct). But not all tests look for both. You can have the presence of one antibody that only shows up during an acute phase of the virus while the other shows up later.
edit: And thats not to be confused with nasal swabs which have a different method of detection and are prone to user error
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Post by svart on Jul 1, 2020 11:35:00 GMT -6
It's well known that a large number of respiratory viruses have a dual peak, a first acute stage, followed by partial recovery, then a second more mild symptomatic stage followed by full recovery. Not enough is known about the virus yet, but it's really doubtful the same folks are being infected in two distinct exposures. It also depends on which antibodies you're testing for. For Covid I think they test for IgG and IgM (if I remember correct). But not all tests look for both. You can have the presence of one antibody that only shows up during an acute phase of the virus while the other shows up later.
edit: And thats not to be confused with nasal swabs which have a different method of detection and are prone to user error
Many "cold" viruses are coronaviruses very similar to this strain. Antibody tests use proteins from the virus shell to elicit a reaction from cultured blood samples. I have yet to see anywhere that these other coronaviruses can't cause false positives in either the rapid tests or the antibody tests. You'd think that they'd be able to, but most of these types of tests are rather broad and full of error. |
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